A Bayesian Approach to the Simulation Argument

A Bayesian Approach to the Simulation Argument

It is argued that the probability that we are sims is in fact less than 50%, tending toward that value in the limit of an infinite number of simulations.This result is broadly indifferent as to whether one conditions upon the fact that humanity has not yet birthed such simulations, or ignore it.Using a bayesian model averaging, it is shown that the probability that we are sims is in fact less than 50%, tending toward that value in the limit of an infinite number of simulations.This result is broadly indifferent as to whether one conditions upon the fact that humanity has not yet birthed such simulations, or ignore it.