Cycling is a promising solution to unsustainable car-centric urban transport
systems. However, prevailing bicycle network development follows a slow and
piecewise process, without taking into account the structural complexity of
transportation networks. Here we explore systematically the topological
limitations of urban bicycle network development. For 62 cities we study
different variations of growing a synthetic bicycle network between an
arbitrary set of points routed on the urban street network. We find initially
decreasing returns on investment until a critical threshold, posing fundamental
consequences to sustainable urban planning: Cities must invest into bicycle
networks with the right growth strategy, and persistently, to surpass a
critical mass. We also find pronounced overlaps of synthetically grown networks
in cities with well-developed existing bicycle networks, showing that our model
reflects reality. Growing networks from scratch makes our approach a generally
applicable starting point for sustainable urban bicycle network planning with
minimal data requirements.
Authors
Michael Szell, Sayat Mimar, Tyler Perlman, Gourab Ghoshal, Roberta Sinatra