A Bayesian cohort component projection model to estimate adult populations at the subnational level in data-sparse settings

Accurate estimates of subnational populations are important for policy
formulation and monitoring population health indicators. For example, estimates
of the number of women of reproductive age are im ...

Forecasting Fertility with Parametric Mixture Models

This paper sets out a forecasting method that employs a mixture of parametric
functions to capture the pattern of fertility with respect to age. The overall
level of cohort fertility is decomposed ove ...

High-resolution population estimation using household survey data and building footprints

The national census is an essential data source to support decision-making in
many areas of public interest. However, this data may become outdated during
the intercensal period, which can stretch up ...

Accounting for Smoking in Forecasting Mortality and Life Expectancy

Smoking is one of the main risk factors that has affected human mortality and
life expectancy over the past century. Smoking accounts for a large part of the
nonlinearities in the growth of life expec ...

Temporal models for demographic and global health outcomes in multiple populations: Introducing a new framework to review and standardize documentation of model assumptions and facilitate model comparison

There is growing interest in producing estimates of demographic and global
health indicators in populations with limited data. Statistical models are
needed to combine data from multiple data sources ...

Filtering and improved Uncertainty Quantification in the dynamic estimation of effective reproduction numbers

The effective reproduction number $R_t$ measures an infectious disease's
transmissibility as the number of secondary infections in one reproduction time
in a population having both susceptible and non ...

Global estimation and scenario-based projections of sex ratio at birth and missing female births using a Bayesian hierarchical time series mixture model

The sex ratio at birth (SRB) is defined as the ratio of male to female live
births. The SRB imbalance in parts of the world over the past several decades
is a direct consequence of sex-selective abort ...

Estimating the Stillbirth Rate for 195 Countries Using A Bayesian Sparse Regression Model with Temporal Smoothing

Estimation of stillbirth rates globally is complicated because of the paucity
of reliable data from countries where most stillbirths occur. We compiled data
and developed a Bayesian hierarchical tempo ...

Real GDP per capita since 1870

The growth rate of real GDP per capita in the biggest OECD countries is
represented as a sum of two components - a steadily decreasing trend and
fluctuations related to the change in some specific age ...

Global estimation of unintended pregnancy and abortion using a Bayesian hierarchical random walk model

Unintended pregnancy and abortion estimates are needed to inform and motivate investment in global health programmes and policies. Variability in the availability and reliability of data poses challen ...