Underspecification Presents Challenges for Credibility in Modern Machine Learning
ML models often exhibit unexpectedly poor behavior when they are deployed in
real-world domains. We identify underspecification as a key reason for these
failures. An ML pipeline is underspecified when it can return many predictors
with equivalently strong held-out performance in the training domain.
Underspecification is common in modern ML pipelines, such as those based on
deep learning. Predictors returned by underspecified pipelines are often
treated as equivalent based on their training domain performance, but we show
here that such predictors can behave very differently in deployment domains.
This ambiguity can lead to instability and poor model behavior in practice, and
is a distinct failure mode from previously identified issues arising from
structural mismatch between training and deployment domains. We show that this
problem appears in a wide variety of practical ML pipelines, using examples
from computer vision, medical imaging, natural language processing, clinical
risk prediction based on electronic health records, and medical genomics. Our
results show the need to explicitly account for underspecification in modeling
pipelines that are intended for real-world deployment in any domain.
Authors
Alexander D'Amour, Katherine Heller, Dan Moldovan, Ben Adlam, Babak Alipanahi, Alex Beutel, Christina Chen, Jonathan Deaton, Jacob Eisenstein, Matthew D. Hoffman, Farhad Hormozdiari, Neil Houlsby, Shaobo Hou, Ghassen Jerfel, Alan Karthikesalingam, Mario Lucic, Yian Ma, Cory McLean, Diana Mincu, Akinori Mitani